Random Walk Newsletter, Issue 21 ~ Monkey First#
News & Insights#
How to Live a Miserable Life
It's been two weeks since we last met. I no longer require myself to write an article every week. Working from home every day has actually made it difficult for me to come up with writing ideas. So, I'll just go with the flow.
Nowadays, I get most of my information from consuming content, such as listening to audiobooks and reading books. Recently, I came across a book with a very unique title, "How to Live a Miserable Life." The method is quite simple, summed up in one sentence: compare yourself to others. On the contrary, if you don't want to live a miserable life, then stop comparing yourself to others. It's better to focus on comparing yourself to your past self. For example, if today you learned 10 more words and read an article, that's great.
About Thinking Methods
Many people have probably heard the famous quote by Henry Ford: "If I had to ask customers what they want, they will tell me: a faster horse." The idea of a "faster horse" is the result of thinking by analogy, because customers know that a "faster horse" will get them to their destination faster. By thinking in this way, it is highly unlikely that the solution of a "car" would be thought of.
Sometimes, thinking outside the box is necessary to come up with something truly different. Of course, this is not an easy task. However, if the current solutions have reached their limits, it means that there may be another technology on the horizon.
Audiobooks & Books#
The Shepherd's Philosophy
This book presents an interesting viewpoint: "If I predict that the stock market will rise by 100 points tomorrow, then based on this prediction, I will definitely buy today. However, the act of 'buying today' itself will change tomorrow's market, making it different from the market I predicted." This shows that your actions have already influenced the outcome, and you predicted the result before taking action. It's a bit confusing, but it has given me inspiration. However, I can't describe in words exactly what this inspiration is.
The book also mentions another viewpoint that I have recently experienced. It says, "People's opinions about something are already reflected in the price, causing price fluctuations. However, when that thing actually happens, the market may not react anymore." If the reality doesn't meet expectations, such as the limited application scope of a technological achievement, it may trigger a reverse price adjustment. For example, after the technology is implemented, the industry sector may experience a downturn.
Friends who follow cryptocurrency should have heard of ETH 2.0. Due to this event, ETH rose from around $1000 to $2000 in less than two weeks. However, it has now dropped back to around $1500, and the upgrade happened just 15 days ago. So, the price change happened about a month in advance, and as the event approached, the price started to decline. This perfectly matches what was mentioned earlier, that the focus of attention is reflected in the price in advance.
Question is the Answer
Google has a department called "Moonshot Factory," which is not actually about researching moon landings. There is a principle in this department called the "Monkey First" principle. The book gives an example: if your team is given a task to make a monkey sit on top of a pole and recite Shakespeare's works, what would you do?
Most teams would start by breaking down the problem and gradually progressing from the simplest tasks. For example, how to design a pole that allows the monkey to sit securely on top.
However, the people in this department would directly challenge this approach. They would say that it is self-deception because everyone knows that the real difficulty lies in teaching the monkey to recite the works. If this cannot be accomplished, no matter how well-designed the pole is, the task cannot be completed.
By asking the most difficult question, they change the framework for problem-solving. Instead of starting with simple tasks, they start with the critical bottleneck. This often leads to breakthrough progress.
However, let me share my viewpoint. I understand this principle, but I wouldn't approach it this way because starting with the most difficult question may cause the entire task to stagnate or even lead to a loss of confidence (not everyone can solve the monkey problem). I lean more towards another viewpoint I came across earlier, which is to set higher goals and gradually work towards them. This way, even if you only achieve 80% in the end, it may still be better than what you originally expected.
That's all for this issue of the Newsletter. If you have any questions, feel free to email me. Thank you for reading.